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Another week is starting, with US and UK markets close on Monday due to holiday. The activity in the currency markets was very small, with thin liquidity the main event of the day.
Various Federal Reserve officials continue to issue commentary suggesting that they will leave rates steady at their next meeting in June. Indeed, Fed Chairman Bernanke put the pressure on financial institutions to continue raising capital, signaling that they may no longer be receiving help from the central bank.
The majority of forex market-moving economic indicators will be contained to Wednesday, as the Bank of England's May meeting minutes, Canadian CPI, and the Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes will all be released. However, traders should also keep an eye on Tuesday's German ZEW survey of investor sentiment and Thursday's release of UK retail sales.
Again despite corrective US dollar strength, which saw the Yen drop to 105.45 and Cable to $1.9361, Nymex Crude Oil set a new record high of $126.98 per barrel, taking Gasoline and Heating Oil to new records at $3.2370 and $3.7228 respectively. Note that in Euros a new record at €79.40 per barrel was set and Diesel at the pump cost £5.45 per gallon in Britain. Baltic Dry Freight Rates matched last year's record high, Capesize set a new record at 16,999, and even Dirty Tanker rates to the US Gulf have almost tripled since mid-April. Moves in money market futures were ferocious, Short Sterling dropping by 57 basis points this week alone and Euribor 46. Relative to absolute interest rates this is terrifying stuff, the biggest swings since late January (where prices moved up and then down), and hint that the credit crunch may be back (as US investment banks try to sort out their half-year end in May). Treasuries were dragged to some of their highest yields this year, but retreated late Thursday as we begin to ponder credit spreads. Equity indices rallied again, in a happy little world of their own, although it is still not entirely clear whether they have broken above key chart points. Brazil's Bovespa is at a new record of 72,188 while Egypt's most watched index collapsed from a record high last week, losing 15% of face value.
England is separated from the continent by the English Channel. It is joined to the United States by a common culture and language but when it comes to economics, 'La Manche'as the French call the English Channel is a tiny stream and the Atlantic remains an ocean. The United Kingdom and the European Monetary Union (EMU) are far more closely tied to each other economically than either is to the United States. Each is the other’s biggest trading partner and what happens in one economy is mirrored across the stream.