|
|
Categories:
Google Ads:
New Information
- What's Next for the Dollar - May 27 08
- Global Central Bank Comments: Fed, ECB - May 21 08
- 5 Most Important Events for the Forex Market This Week - May 19 08
- Weekly Market Commentary - May 16 08
- Market Directions: The Sterling Connection - May 12 08
- Weekly Market Commentary - May 09 08
- Market Directions: Ad-Libbing the Dollar - May 05 08
- U.S. Weekly Wrap-Up - May 02 08
- Focus on BoE and ECB Interest Rate Decisions
- Oanda review
Search
Weekly Market Commentary - May 09 08
Despite corrective US dollar strength, which saw the Euro drop to $1.5285 and Cable to $1.9459, Nymex Crude Oil set a new record high of $126.20 per barrel. Not surprisingly Gasoline and Heating Oil also set new records at $3.1860 and $3.6125 per gallon. This allowed the CRB Index to reach a new record high at 424.59 despite most other commodities doing nothing of the sort. With the exception of CBT Corn which set a new record at $6.27 per bushel (and CME Lean Hogs towards the highest price of the last decade at 79.375 cents per pound) all others were sidelined. Baltic Dry Freight Rates are very close to last year's record highs. Some fairly sizeable moves in the currency crosses, with the Yen, Polish zloty and Swiss franc gaining against most, hardest hit the South Korean won, Brazilian real and South African rand. Iceland's crown is also under increasing pressure with the Central Bank's chief economist noting today that they are 'on very dangerous economic terrain. Our main problem is to stabilise the currency'. Yields on all maturities eased a little, inching just below the lows of the last fortnight, even though money markets remain seized up. Stock indices continue to struggle with fairly pivotal chart levels and moves are still inconclusive although some formed small 'spike highs' this week. Russia's main index exploded to a new record high as Vladimir Putin became Prime Minister.
Market Directions: Ad-Libbing the Dollar - May 05 08
A Federal Reserve hint, a Non Farm Payrolls less damming than feared, a contracting but not deteriorating manufacturing ISM and a barely expansionary GDP were the US ingredients for a major dollar rally this week. In isolation there is little in these numbers to cheer, but in context each allayed a particular worry for the American economy.
U.S. Weekly Wrap-Up - May 02 08
Markets were showing strength this week on the Fed rate cut, mixed economic data and heavy earnings reports. The jury remained out on recession, as speakers such as the BoE's Blanchflower claimed with certainty that the US indeed was in a recession, whilst job numbers came in slightly better than expected and GDP numers showed slightly positive annualized growth. However it became increasingly clear with the comments from the White House that the slowdown is here and the economy is 'not as robust as it should be', but not yet in a recession.
Focus on BoE and ECB Interest Rate Decisions
In the UK, the outcome of the April services PMI, published Tuesday, will play a part in the Bank of England's decision whether to immediately cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.75% on Thursday, or to delay the move until June, with the possibility that there will be no further cuts at all. Our view is that unless there is a significant fall in the index, to a level below 50, which suggests contraction, the majority of MPC members will vote to hold rates, with David Blanchflower and possibly one other member dissenting. Another 0.25% cut in June or later, is entirely dependent on the depth of economic slowdown from incoming economic data. By contrast, the ECB's stance to hold interest rates at 4%, also on Thursday, is far more clear cut. Whereas there are some signs that the region's economy is slowing, data this week on services growth and retail sales may present a mixed picture, while inflation pressures are evidently rising. US data is likely to provide further indication that the economy is close to, or in recession, providing justification for last week's 0.25% cut to 2% in the Fed funds rate. But there are early indications that financial markets may be over the worst of the credit crunch and evidence that the US economic downturn is finally bottoming out, suggesting that the Fed may also be close to or at the end of its interest rate cutting cycle.
Oanda review
OANDA provides many Foreign Exchange services besides FXTrade, their FOREX trading platform. They provide conversion tools and currency charts for businesses to integrate into their sites and indexes and information for travelers.
Copyright © 2006-2008 - All right reserved! · Login